Tuesday, April 29, 2008

End Of Speculation: The Real Twitter Usage Numbers

Here are some "unconfirmed" numbers...

March 2008
Total Users: 1+ million
Total Active Users: 200,000 per week
Total Twitter Messages: 3 million/day

If this is correct and they got their $15m round at a pre money of $50m then the post money would be $$65m which would equate to $65 dollars per person.

Right now it's hard to understand the value that is worth paying $65 dollars per person.

If we use the 200,000 number then the dollar numbers goes up to $325 per person which is astronomical.

1% of of the active user base is 2,000 users which is somewhere close to the conversion number from free to paying. That changes the number to $32,500 per person.

Lets say that somewhere in there is the "right" number - it ranges between $65 per customer all the way to $32,500 per customer.

My guess is that Twitter still has to figure out how to monetize their user base - even so I still doubt that they are worth more than $30 per customer.

I bet the VC's are glad the liquidation preference is in the term sheet. Only one problem left to solve - whose the buyer?

End Of Speculation: The Real Twitter Usage Numbers

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