Interesting post - how will they know?
Google took 4 years and $20m in funding to find it's niche. During that time almost everyone in the Valley thought it was a bust except for just a few.
Tom Foremski of ZDNet agrees with Nolan, adding:
"Incremental innovation just won’t cut it...innovation has to be disruptive otherwise it won’t succeed, because there is little incentive to change."
When someone does come up with something it will be ridiculed and then violently opposed. After that it will be accepted as self evident. All of this will take years.
So apply now and lets check back in around 2013