Mobile Development Platforms

Best Mobile development platforms... (where you the developer can make money)

1. Windows Mobile
2. Symbian
3. Blackberry

iPhone: One No from Apple and you're out of business. No viable ecosystem (IMO).

Android: Too much fragmentation and missing features from the core OS.

None of the code from one platform is supported on the other, you have to port or re-write huge chunks, especially where the user interface is important.

Seriously expensive to develop on all 5 platforms. Only one thing supports all platforms and that's HTML.

IMO the trend is going to be Web services on Mobile. SImply too expensive to support any other approach.

Your Senate at Work

Glad to see they finally put a price on History

There is no ROI IN Social media, the ROI is FROM Social Media

Finally someone (http://blog.ecairn.com/) was kind enough to sum it all up for me. (Thanks Dominique!).

I've been using Twitter for months now and never really got it. It's there on the side of my desktop, continually updating, flowing like a river of news.

Occasionally I would see something of interest and click on a link. That was it. I used it without knowing why I used it.

Now I'm beginning to understand. The power comes from the conversation, not by being in the conversation. I follow follow mostly Mobile people. It's not a huge crowd, but it is a smart crowd. And after awhile of watching the river flow down the screen I start picking up the gems.

I want to post something Dominique sent me via Facebook - it sums things up perfectly (well for me anyway)...

"by the way, this is why social media monitoring and search is the wrong approach to social marketing.

let's say there are 200 conversations of interest in the mommy blogger community on insurance this week.

if you do a search approach, and you are perfect, you'll get these 200 burried in the river of news of 2000 conversations that mention mums and insurance, some of it coming from pers finance experts ...

If you think people first and map the community, and you do it well, you'll get 190 of these and all the one coming from the influencers/thought leaders. Ok you may miss a few, but you're in a position to learn.... and apply"

So there you have it - the ROI is FROM the social network. You just have to learn to filter the river of news and collect the gems. Sort of like panning for Gold.

Is location enough?

It's fascinating to watch all these new startups focusing on location. They seem to be getting funded left and right, with everyone betting on the need to determine real time location.

The gorillas in this space with location capability are AOL, Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, Navteq, Tele-Atlas etc. These are all huge companies, with teams of developers ensuring that you can access data via their API's (web programming interface).

So these startup's must compete against these giants - how? I believe it will all hinge around the services they offer. And now as I think out loud this brings me to the part I find interesting. It's all about the ecosystem the value chain and the sales cycle.

The dependency in the chain is the the developer of the service/app that leverages location. He has to design, build, test and deploy his/her app into the market place. Let's say that cycle is 6 months for each mobile platform. And then an additional 12 months for growth to occur.

The sales cycle for additional revenue generated through use of the location based service API's is then anywhere between 6 months and 18 months.

Therefore the opportunity is for those services to partner with solutions that can lower that sales cycle by reducing the need for complex mobile programming and or allow for rapid changes to the business logic that delivers the content to the mobile app.

It's not just about the technology anymore, it's about the players along the chain that deliver the value to the eventual customer(s). Anything you can do to mitigate that risk and accelerate the sales cycle will be a good thing for these new startups.

An interesting picture

Forget the phone for a moment. Just look at the background *in* each phone. IMO Apple is already looking dated. All it is, is a bunch of apps. It's not a Web enabled OS - just an App OS.

Maybe the winner will really integrate it into the Web.

We'll see

What Matters

Seth's Blog: What Matters Now: get the free ebook

Download it, enjoy it, learn from it. You'll be better for it - because it's what matters.

Nexus - The center of the Web Universe

Google's Nexus will have wifi and integrated VOIP which will tie into Google Voice. Google will "subsidize the phone" and deploy wifi everywhere.

Can you smell what's cooking - there is one big carrier dog fight coming up. Google is in this to win - others will respond. LTE will arrive just in time for Nexus to really take hold. This is going to be Google's second act.

There are 4 phases to a company...

1. Think it up
2. Scale it
3. Milk it
4. Think it up

Google's Mobile strategy is now #4. All you need is something to replace cell towers. That would be wimax towers. 10 years from now voice calls will be free. Cell towers will be rusting heaps. The carriers will have changed their business models and Google will have had to deal with anti-trust issues.

One more thing - no more apps. Won't need them. Everything will take place in the mobile browser, pretty much like it's happening on the desktop. All major software companies will adopt a Services Orientated Architecture and SaaS will be the norm.

One other big play that is missing is mCommerce. That's where you basically turn a billion or more "connected" mobile devices into one big web transactional service.

What does all of the above hinge on? One word - Trust.

It's going to be the new currency.

The perils of "Tightly Coupled"

"Apple has generated major revenue and margin growth based on its iPhone business -- while AT&T largely has been unable to cash in on the growth in data services beyond monthly access fees," said Jagdish Rebello, PhD, senior director and principal analyst for iSuppli. "This is making it difficult for AT&T to make the required investments to upgrade its network to support greater bandwidth. The net result is a deterioration in the mobile broadband user experience."

link: AppleInsider | AT&T's tough talk on data use seen as part of struggle with Apple

Once again be careful of what you wish for. It's all about a "tightly coupled" relationship.

AT&T paid the price - next inline - Newspapers and Magazines as they "tightly couple" their content to Apple/iTablet.

Proceed with caution!

Android - Real Context - Real Time - All the Time (& Your in Control of your Personal Data)

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words... Here's Google's Android browser sending real time context to the Internet. (See it even knows My favorite Google keywords, and even Where I've been and Where I am now)

You don't need Google Gears, you don't need HTML5, you don't need to do any mobile programming, you don't even need to type anything in.

All you have to do is add Google to your privacy whitelist and then the second you navigate to www.google.com in your browser, they have real time context about who you are, what device you're using, and where you are.

Totally frictionless.

What does this enable? Google results can now be personalized for you, search results will now have a "local" context.

The web that you know, now becomes the web that knows you. And if you're concerned about your privacy (which lets face it we all are) with a simple checkbox you can remove your context.

PS. It's identical on Blackberry and Windows Mobile

PPS. To see more screenshots click on this link: http://www.5o9mm.com/android

Real Context - Real Time

Video Interview: GeoAPI Puts Apps in Their Place – GigaOM

Key take aways...

1. Real Context - Real Time
2. Finding "things" in a Local Context
3. Location is ONLY ONE lens
4. Adsense model

Things to remember - for real context you need more than location - you need personal meta data. They're hoping that it will come from within the web service that you've signed up for.

Things are really heating up in this space, however there will only be one winner (maybe two). Essentially they're extending a web service to mobile and then using the location data coupled with the consumers interest profile to deliver ads to the device.

The problem comes when you try and close the marketing loop with a request for additional meta data e.g. your address, your phone number. The consumer will not be willing to type that in on a mobile phone (well maybe once) but that's it.

The Yahoo Ad Interest Manager integrated into 5o9 Me - Well Almost

Yahoo! Introduces Ad Interest Manager

Today Yahoo announces the Ad Interest Manager. This is a preemptive strike in response to user demand for increased visibility and control regarding targeted ads. 4 years ago we came to the same conclusion. Namely that consumers would want to control their personal data. So we invented 5o9 me - a Mobile browser plug-in that enables complete control over your personal data that you send over the web.

Our approach was simple - Why not simply let the user choose with whom to share their data and for what purpose? If you (the Web service) know who the user is, where they are and their device capabilities on each and every Web transaction, these companies would not need to hold any sensitive data for longer than the Web transaction, itself – and they could deliver highly targeted ads and personalized content.

The two screen shots show how easy it would be to integrate into Yahoo! It required one line of HTML code for the browser menu and all I had to do in the control panel was enter my preferences and enable the manager. And as you can see from the first image all the user has to do to reach Yahoo search is simply click on the browser menu and select Search - Yahoo.

Apple's Game Changer? Is it really? (Part 3)

Follow the money trail.

Apple has introduced a game changer. A phone that makes calls and allows you to add apps to it. For those who rushed to buy it was a $700 dollar purchase. For those who waited it's $199 (just the same as all the other phones out there).

Developers have developed like crazy for the new platform. In fact one made $181,000 in a singe month. In a single month Apple made a lot more than the developer. That's because the deck (literally) is tilted in Apple's favor. Sure the developers get a split of the revenue (70%) but it is NOT enough to build a sustainable business. $181,000 is great for a single developer - but a company it does not make.

Now there are over 100,000 apps available. Power users probably consume 30 at the most and have paid no more than $50 for everything. The rest of us use less than 10 and have probably paid $25 for them. There's just not enough money to go around. Apple and AT&T are draining the bank account dry.

Once you have your first hit on the iPhone and there are a 160 competitors what do you do for an encore?

I know let's switch to another platform and see if our app works there. I doubt it because all the code bases and development languages are different and let's not forget the user interface. Oops - more work, more development, more testing - MORE COSTS.

So Apple iPhone developers are caught in a beautifully gilded Walled Garden. Their code only works there, they can only do what Apple lets them do and ONE NO means failure. That's a huge risk to an investor. Apple doesn't care because like moths to a flame developers are drawn to all that glitters.

Apple and AT&T are making all the money. Of the 100,000 apps less than 10 will do a million in the first year and even less in the second year. It's not a sustainable "ecosystem" because there aren't NET NEW revenue opportunities. For that you have to look to other platforms and that's where none of your code works.

Hence the future of Mobile is going to be Web services. Apple have thought about that but have crippled the browser so it does virtually nothing other than display a page. You can get access to the GPS but performance is a really bad. And if you build a web service that supports the iPhone it doesn't work in a cross platform environment because other browsers don't support HTML5 (still unfinished standard).

With regard to Microsoft - sure they're behind, they were in games too and also operating systems once. If Android could catch Apple in 24 months then Microsoft can catch them in 12. Next year you will see new improved form factors, more powerful processors and better integration. As you start developing - be sure to follow the money trail. There's simply more money in the Windows ecosystem.

As for Android - it doesn't have an ecosystem - all roads lead to one domain. But in one respect Google does get the future of Mobile - it's Web services NOT apps.

Why?

Because mobile apps don't scale in to sustainable business and if you follow the money trail you'd know that.

Apple's Game Changer? Is it really? (Part 2)

IMO the future of mobile (and the cloud) will revolve around the "transaction". Whomever sits at the center of that as a Trusted Web Service Manager will control vast amounts of data and revenue.

Apps are not transactions - iTunes (the Store) is a transaction and generates revenue. Apple's strategy will be to become a Trusted Web service manager and control the transaction and the customers meta data. Ultimately this will fail as it does not scale beyond their walled garden (the iPhone). Hence the NEED for an agnostic cloud - it won't be Google, they're too focused on ad's and their Phone "copies" too many of the walled garden techniques that made the iPhone what it is today. (We've spent 3 months digging into Android and it's shocking what's going on).

Which leads us to the future of Mobile and the Cloud. Here's why I think Microsoft is going to win this one...architecture.

Both the iPhone and Android and Blackberry suffer from a constrained architecture. They give you what they think you need to be creative whilst reserving the best features for themselves. Android has already started moving API's that were present in v 1.5 into secret areas in 2.0 (Only they have access to them).

Compare this to the Windows Mobile platform which has API's which have been there for years and continue to expand. And therein lies the value - to drive transactions OUTSIDE the iPhone/iTunes - Android Marketplace you need an ecosystem that can generate NET NEW revenue opportunities. Microsoft already own a huge chunk of that with Widows, Windows Server, .NET and Azure - all of which support a plug-able framework with Open APIs for creative developers to drive revenue.

So in summary - the Trusted Web Server Manager will be the center of the mCommerce transaction. It will run on Open Standards and will in all likelihood be dominated by an incumbent - someone like a First Data. They already have the business relationships - all the need is a framework to extract the meta data from the transaction and share that to create net new revenue opportunities for their ecosystem.

Apple's Game Changer? Is it really

App Store Is a Game Changer for Apple and Cellphone Industry - NYTimes.com

Interesting - Apple changed behaviors once before and then lost it to Microsoft.

Mobile apps don't scale. How many sustainable business can be built of a mobile app that only runs on one device?

Apple change the way you think and finally showed people what mobile developers have been saying for years. Microsoft changes the way you spend money. They have a "complete sustainable" ecosystem that drives net new revenue opportunities for businesses.

The future of Mobile is cloud computing - why? Because it scales across ALL mobile devices and therefore lends itself to sustainable revenue.

Apple have done all of us a favor. Google has copied them (it's becoming evident when you look under the covers at the OS and what they are "removing"). Microsoft will come in and take the next generation of developers who will integrate their phone into the cloud and the Enterprise.

Ultimately it's all about the developers AND net new sustainable revenue opportunities. Apple is keeping all the money vs. Microsoft who will share the revenue via the channel.

Microsoft offers a far richer API environment with less control and more chance for creativity than any other platform. In 2010 with WM 7 it will be game on.

Android

An interesting Android factoid... (Developers beware).

There are 4 known releases of the OS. 1.0, 1.5, 1.6 and 2.0 What works on 1.0 and 1.5 does NOT work on 1.6 and 2.0 What was there in 1.5 is moved or ripped out in 1.6 What was in 1.6 and was "Open" is now moved into a Secure area only accessible via Google.

Let me tell you - they are locking down this OS and parts of it are only going to work really well on Google web services.

For developers this is really risky. Let me compare this with Windows Mobile. API's that have been there for 10 years are still there. Developers like this because they can get creative. Both Apple & Android are restricting the creativity of the developers via their API's.

Which means that the real money is the Windows ecosystem. Balmer was right - Developers, Developers, Developers. Google is following Apple and that's not a smart move.